What’s next?
As EU leaders meet in the Portuguese capital today (13 December) to sign the Lisbon Treaty, attention is turning to the prospects of getting the agreement ratified in all 27 EU Member States by the December 2008 deadline which Heads of State and Government have set themselves.
As part of its ongoing work on the new EU Treaty, its implications and its implementation, the European Policy Centre has updated the table, first published in July 2007, setting out the timetable and ratification requirements in each EU Member State and the main political parties’ positions on this issue. On this basis, it evaluates whether the Treaty is likely to secure the required majority in each case. (In the many countries which have not yet decided on the precise arrangements for ratifying the Treaty, the table outlines the different options under consideration.)
The attached table will be updated as developments occur at the national level so that it reflects the progress being made and highlights the challenges ahead.
The EPC has also recently released two major publications examining key aspects of the new Treaty and the challenges which lie ahead: a new issue of our policy journal Challenge Europe entitled ‘The people’s project? The new EU Treaty and the prospects for future integration’, and a joint study with two other Brussels-based think tanks - the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) and EGMONT - entitled The Treaty of Lisbon: implementing the institutional innovations.
What’s new?
There have been two developments within the last few days which are worth highlighting here.
First, the newly re-elected Danish government finally announced on 11 December that it had decided not to hold a referendum on the Treaty, in light of the Ministry of Justice’s conclusion that it does not involve further transfers of sovereignty to the EU level. However, Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen’s government has decided to put the current Danish opt-outs from EU Treaty provisions to a referendum shortly after the ratification process is over, although it is not yet clear how many of the four opt-outs will be put to a vote.
Second, Poland’s new Prime Minister Donald Tusk has raised the possibility that Poland might reverse its opt-out from the Treaty’s Charter of Fundamental Rights at a later stage, although the official position remains that this opt-out will be retained in the Treaty text to be submitted for ratification. President Lech Kaczynski, whose party negotiated the opt-out over the summer, is still opposed to the Charter and his support - and that of his party in the parliament - would be needed to overturn it.
Another key question is the timing of the ratification in each Member State, particularly Ireland, which looks like being the only country to hold a referendum on the Treaty. There is an ongoing debate in Dublin over whether to put this issue to a vote mid-way through the process, once some countries have ratified and momentum is building, or to wait until the end and aim to be the last country to ratify in December 2008, in order to put extra pressure on the voters.
The Irish government is warning that a ‘Yes’ vote in this traditionally pro-European country cannot be taken for granted. Given that the chances of successful ratification through Parliament in other Member States are high, the new Treaty’s fate could well be decided by voters in one of its smallest Member States.
Sara Hagemann is a Policy Analyst at the European Policy Centre.
The content, ratification and implementation of the Lisbon Treaty are subject to constant analysis as part of the work of the EPC’s EU Governance Forum.