While wars rage in Ukraine and the Middle East, a digital arms race is gathering pace – the scramble to be the first to harness the powers of quantum technologies.
Under mounting pressure from Russian hybrid attacks, Europe risks losing the race unless it speeds up their adoption of quantum-proof cryptography to protect its communications, and quantum sensors for navigation and to detect threats on earth, in space and beneath the oceans.
At the crossroads of technological innovation and geopolitical urgency, integrating quantum technologies is not just a matter of keeping up with global scientific advances but it’s essential to safeguard European security and strategic autonomy.
Accelerating Quantum-Proof Cryptography: A Strategic Necessity
The advent of quantum computing presents a significant challenge to current cybersecurity frameworks. Quantum computers, leveraging advanced principles of physics such as superposition and entanglement, will be able to perform calculations at speeds far beyond the capabilities of classical computers.
This new quantum computing capability will enable them to crack the encryption that keeps our modern communications secure. This will pose a risk to the entire digital infrastructure our modern life if built upon.
In the near future, hackers with quantum tools will be able to open and read any email, financial transaction, government communication, or military signal. They will also be able to open and read any of our previous signals and messages that are being gathered by governments and nonstate actors in “hack now, decrypt later” schemes. These same quantum tools will also enable state and non-state hackers to disrupt or manipulate critical communications, energy, financial, and transportation systems that provide our essential services.
The concept of "Y2Q" (Years to Quantum) highlights the urgency of this threat. Y2Q refers to the point at which quantum computers can break public-key cryptography—a milestone that could arrive much sooner than anticipated. Estimates suggest that quantum computers could break standard encryption by as early as 2030, with some experts warning that it could happen within the next five years. The unpredictability of this timeline underscores the need for immediate and coordinated action across Europe.
To mitigate this looming threat, Europe must accelerate its transition to quantum-resistant cryptographic standards. While the European Union has made strides in this direction—particularly through its Quantum Flagship initiative—there is an urgent need to increase the pace of implementation. This includes developing quantum-resistant cryptographic algorithms and ensuring their widespread adoption across critical sectors. The process of overhauling IT infrastructures to accommodate these new standards could take years, making it imperative to start now to avoid leaving sensitive data exposed to quantum threats.
Governments and companies are working to develop the standards and implement quantum resistant cryptography to protect digital systems well before the arrival of quantum codebreaking circa 2028-2030.
In January 2024, US President Biden signed a National Security Memorandum calling for protecting government systems with quantum resistant cryptography well before 2030. In January 2024, NATO agreed its first-ever Quantum Technologies Strategy and Denmark hosted the first meeting of NATO’s Transatlantic Quantum Community in July.
The EU has been funding the development of quantum resistant cryptography as part of its larger European Quantum Flagship programme and the European Commission published its recommendations on post-quantum cryptography in April 2024. The EU, US, China, and others are also working on their own quantum internet projects, spending billions on research and competing for a limited talent pool of qualified scientists to make similar advances.
If the global financial system, the security sector, supply chains, communications, AI-enabled systems, and the Internet of Things are not effectively protected with quantum-resistant cryptography, our societies could enter another age of digital vulnerability. Only this time the vulnerability will exist well beyond computers or smart phones since the encryption that keeps them safe could be obsolete, unless they are protected by encryption that cannot be broken by quantum computers.
For this reason, NATO and the EU should work together to achieve a whole-of-system quantum safe cryptography coverage that meets the same standards and has the same target dates. This will be necessary because if NATO is quantum-safe and the EU is not, the entire foundation upon which the Alliance operates could render it ineffective during a crisis. The same applies in reverse; a quantum safe EU without a quantum-safe NATO weakens deterrence greatly.
Transitioning to Quantum Sensors: Enhancing Security and Resilience
The war in Ukraine has provided stark lessons about the vulnerabilities of current technologies and the need for rapid innovation. Russia’s electronic interference with the US Global Positioning System (GPS) and the EU’s Galileo-based systems has disrupted Ukrainian military operations and rendered many Western-donated weapons ineffective due to the jamming of their navigation and targeting systems.
It has also affected the civilian transport infrastructure, highlighting the fragility of these systems in the face of sophisticated electronic warfare. These developments serve as a clear warning for Europe and NATO. As Russia refines its electronic warfare capabilities, the risk of similar disruptions to European and NATO systems becomes increasingly real.
The constellations of GPS and Galileo satellites face significant threats from Russia and China through their development of anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons and electronic warfare capabilities. Both nations have demonstrated the ability to target and destroy satellites using kinetic ASAT missiles, which can disable or destroy satellites in orbit. These capabilities are intended to counter the West's reliance on satellite-based systems, threatening military, civilian, and commercial uses of GPS and Galileo.
The need for resilient, quantum-based navigation and communication systems is more urgent than ever. With their resistance to jamming and spoofing, quantum sensors, offer a viable solution to these challenges.
These sensors, which exploit the extreme sensitivity of quantum systems to external stimuli, offer significant advantages over existing technologies in navigation, environmental monitoring, and defence. For instance, quantum inertial measurement units (IMUs) can offer precise navigation capabilities without relying on external signals, making them invaluable in GPS-denied environments.
The strategic implications of quantum sensors extend beyond navigation. In the military domain, they can also enhance the accuracy and reliability of submarine detection and the identification of underground structures or nuclear materials. This makes quantum sensors vital to future NATO and EU defence strategies amid rising geopolitical tensions.
Geopolitical Considerations and Strategic Autonomy
The global race for quantum supremacy is intensifying, with major powers like the United States and China investing heavily in quantum research and development. Europe, too, must position itself as a leader in this field to maintain its strategic autonomy and protect its interests.
Managing technological collaboration with non-European entities, particularly in China, presents one key challenge given the risks associated with sharing sensitive technologies. Europe must assess its partnerships to ensure that its quantum research efforts are not inadvertently aiding adversaries. This may involve imposing stricter controls on technology exports and reassessing collaborative projects with non-European partners.
A Call for Joint Action by NATO and the EU
Some European leaders and defence experts have warned of a potential conflict with Russia within 3-5 years, which shows the urgency of addressing these issues. How can the EU and NATO be prepared for a quantum future?
Firstly, NATO and the EU should draft a joint strategy to deploy quantum-safe systems, setting a target date of 2027 to equip all armed forces, law enforcement, and key government entities with interoperable quantum-safe cryptography. The strategy should also set a target of 2029 for critical infrastructure including energy, transportation, finance, health and communications to have quantum-proof security. Such a transition to quantum resistant cybersecurity can only be achieved with ample funding to accelerate the process. Protecting citizens’ data, a member state responsibility, should also be a priority from the earliest stages.
Secondly, NATO and the EU should accelerate the development and deployment of quantum sensors for navigation and guidance systems, including target dates for deployment as part of an EU-NATO Joint Quantum Technology Strategy.
In 2024, NATO agreed to accelerate the adoption of quantum technologies to ensure it can operate effectively in increasingly contested environments. As these technologies are integrated into both military and civilian infrastructure, it will be critical to ensure that quantum systems work seamlessly across borders to maintain the alliance’s operational effectiveness. This effort includes setting common standards for quantum-resistant cryptography and quantum sensors, essential for NATO's success in the quantum era.
Finally, Europe's readiness for the quantum future hinges on its ability to adapt and innovate in the face of rapidly advancing technologies. The lessons from the Ukraine conflict, particularly regarding Russia's interference with GPS and Galileo systems, underscore the critical need for Europe and NATO to accelerate the adoption of quantum-proof cryptography and quantum sensors. These technologies are not just innovations; they are strategic necessities that will determine Europe’s security and resilience in the coming decades.
Europe’s strategic autonomy in quantum technology will require a robust and coordinated approach to research and innovation. The creation of quantum research hubs, such as those supported by the Quantum Flagship initiative, is a positive step, but these efforts must be expanded, accelerated, and better integrated across EU member states. By fostering a strong domestic quantum ecosystem, Europe can secure its citizens and reduce its reliance on external powers, ensuring that it remains at the forefront of quantum innovation.
By prioritising these areas, the EU and NATO can secure their position as leaders in the quantum era and protect their citizens from the vulnerabilities associated with outdated systems. These efforts must be supported by robust investment in research and development, a clear strategic vision, and a commitment to maintaining technological sovereignty. Only through decisive action can NATO and the EU ensure that they are prepared for the challenges and opportunities of the quantum future.
Chris Kremidas-Courtney is a senior visiting fellow at the European Policy Centre.
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