The new French Prime Minister Michel Barnier delivered his inaugural policy speech on 1st October to the National Assembly, announcing what France’s EU partners had been expecting for many years: a commitment to reduce the country’s debt and fully respect the Union’s economic governance rules. The current political situation offers, however, neither clarity nor certainty over Barnier’s capacity to deliver.
Two months after the EU opened an excessive deficit procedure, and with France borrowing money at a higher rate than Spain and Greece, Barnier said that the country should give up “magic money” and reduce the deficit from 6% expected this year, to 5% in 2025 and under 3% in 2029. On the day after his speech, he announced a €40bn-cut in public spending in 2025 combined with €20 bn of new taxes. Overall, experts estimate that the French government would need to reduce spending by at least €100bn over the next five years, in order to keep the country’s public debt under control, which is now reaching 112% of GDP.
This will have to be achieved by a minority government that can count on the support of about 212 MPs out of 577. Barnier’s coalition, which includes members from his centre-right. The Republicans party and from the three centrist parties that support Emmanuel Macron, is already threatened by a non-confidence vote of the left-wing New Popular Front coalition (the main bloc in the Assembly) and by the far-right National Rally (the biggest party in the Assembly), who are both opposing what they consider as unacceptable austerity policies.
Barnier knows that beyond France’s economic stability, it is the country’s political credibility in the EU that is at stake. He has been careful until now to present the upcoming effort as a necessity in the interest of future generations, and not as a requirement imposed by ‘Brussels’. Yet, the path towards a fiscal policy compatible both with France’s EU commitments and the country’s leadership ambitions will be extremely narrow.
Barnier may struggle to assume his role as a former Commissioner and chief Brexit negotiator. French prime ministers do not participate in discussions at the EU level, thus President Emmanuel Macron will continue to represent Paris in the European Council. In his speech, Barnier stressed the importance of “industrial policy, technological sovereignty, economic security, defence and the fight against unfair competition”, thereby suggesting that he is aligned with Macron on the main issues that are discussed between EU leaders.
However The relationship between the two levels of representation and decision-making has not been tested yet. Macron said that foreign affairs and defence will remain his so-called reserved domain – in line with an interpretation of the Constitution that is traditionally favoured by presidents. However, Barnier talked of a “shared domain”, and EU politics are at the intersection of their respective competences.
In a visit to Berlin the day after Barnier’s inaugural speech, Macron said that that he intended to devote “more energy” to reform at EU level. A subtle but real competition between Barnier and Macron, for whom the EU is central to their political status, is to be expected, which may affect the clarity of France’s intentions to its partners.
Prime Minister Barnier is also likely to be constrained by the National Assembly, which is usually not an influential part of the French system regarding the EU. Yet, given that Barnier will be leading a minority government, the French parliament will play a more important role. Opposition forces will try to reduce Barnier’s room for manoeuvre on issues that matter to them, through the threat of a non-confidence vote. In his speech, Barnier gave guarantees to the left on social issues and to the right and far-right on security related matters. Navigating between (conflicting) demands from all sides, including within his coalition, will likely have an impact on the coherence of his ministers’ positions in the EU Council and cast doubts as to whether France will actually be able to adhere to a solid fiscal consolidation path.
Despite Barnier’s EU credentials and determination, it will, therefore, be difficult for him to hold his course. As a result, France may be a less predictable partner in Brussels. This comes at a time when the EU is facing major security, economic, and environmental challenges, and needs to take difficult decisions and find new ways to go forward. Strong leadership will be required and will in particular be expected from France and Germany. A weak Paris combined with a weak Berlin is no good news for the Union.
Eric Maurice is a Policy Analyst in the European Politics and Institutions programme.
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