The arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu, the mayor of Istanbul and the main political rival of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has thrust Turkey into a turbulent new political chapter. It also represents a watershed moment in Turkey-EU relations. How the EU responds to Turkey's democratic challenges will reveal whether it truly upholds human rights, democracy, and the rule of law in its relations with Ankara or merely pays lip service while allowing geopolitical and strategic interests to take precedence.
The detention of Turkey’s most popular opposition politician on 19 March 2025, followed by his formal arrest on 23 March on charges of corruption and misusing public funds, was widely viewed as politically motivated. The move has sparked mass, country-wide protests, drawing hundreds of thousands of demonstrators to the streets. Led mainly by Gen Z, university students, and opposition forces under the umbrella of Turkey’s main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), along with several trade unions, the protests have defied bans imposed by Istanbul’s governor. The discontent reflects the cumulative effects of President Erdoğan’s more than two decades in power — marked by populist rhetoric, deep polarisation, and an increasingly tight grip on dissent.
While the demonstrations have swept throughout Turkey, cutting across geographic lines, their composition reveals a worrying fact: the absence of a broad, cross-class coalition. Unlike the 2013 Gezi Park protests, today’s unrest stems from a purely political trigger. Back then, the defence of a public space brought together disparate segments of Turkish society, which grew into a broader movement against Erdoğan's authoritarian policies. This time, despite an even more profound frustration with Erdoğan’s autocratic turn, the protests have struggled to build the same united front. In an effort to maintain public attention and diversify forms of protest, the CHP has called for weekly rallies and proposed an economic boycott. It remains to be seen whether the latter will resonate with a large segment of the population.
In a country where electoral participation has historically been high, this signals something more: for many Turks, the cost of taking to the streets has become increasingly high. As of 27 March, 1,879 people had been detained and 260 arrested, including nearly a dozen journalists, although they were later released. Foreign journalists have also been targeted. The BBC’s Mark Lowen was deported for his coverage of the protests. Additionally, Turkey's media watchdog (RTÜK) announced a ban on some TV channels for broadcasting the CHP’s rallies live. The government’s clampdown highlights its tightening control over public discourse. Under these circumstances, elections — arguably one of the few remaining features of what academics and experts consider a “competitive authoritarian” regime — remain a safer and still powerful vehicle for expressing dissent.
A tipping point for Turkey’s democratic future?
Mayor İmamoğlu, now officially confirmed as the CHP’s presidential candidate with 15.5 million votes cast in the 23 March 2025 primary, remains at the centre of a rapidly escalating political conflict. The large-scale rally held on 29 March in Maltepe, Istanbul, which drew an estimated 2 million people, marked the beginning of a new phase of the opposition’s mobilisation. It focuses on developing a long-term political strategy, calling for the release of İmamoğlu, as well as for snap presidential elections. The CHP has also officially launched a petition campaign with a target of 28 million signatures. The Maltepe rally also served as an important demonstration of solidarity by European counterparts, with a delegation from the Party of European Socialists (PES) attending, led by PES President Stefan Löfven, to support their associate member party, the CHP.
However, despite the country-wide protests, a truly unified opposition has yet to emerge. Erdoğan’s political and economic system – deeply intertwined with both state and private interests for over 22 years – continues to deliver enough dividends to large segments of society. Still, there is a growing sense among citizens that this moment could be a tipping point for Turkey’s democratic future. The question is whether the outrage over İmamoğlu’s arrest will be enough to shake this foundation to the core.
The EU’s dilemma or principled pragmatism
İmamoğlu’s arrest forces European leaders to confront uncomfortable questions over how to respond to democratic backsliding in Turkey. This crackdown further strains an already fragile relationship between Turkey and the EU. European leaders, already struggling to reconcile geopolitical pragmatism with democratic principles, now face heightened concerns over the fundamentals.
The EU’s initial response was mixed, reflecting both shock and division. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called İmamoğlu’s arrest “deeply concerning”, while the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (HR/VP) Kaja Kallas and EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos issued a Joint Statement calling for respect for fundamental rights and the rule of law. Commissioner Kos issued a further statement voicing the EU’s concerns over press freedom, highlighting that detentions, deportations, fines and broadcast bans undermine Turkey’s democratic commitments as both a Council of Europe member and an EU candidate and contradict the principles of free expression. Still, despite criticism, the EU acknowledges the need for continued engagement.
The European Parliament has been most outspoken and resolute, unanimously deciding to postpone the next Joint Parliamentary Committee meeting and urging the EU to prioritise human rights and democracy in future cooperation. On 1 April, a debate on the latest developments was held in the Strasbourg plenary, in which MEPs from across the political spectrum expressed their concerns and solidarity with the Turkish people. The European Parliament's report, prepared by the Turkey Rapporteur Nacho Sánchez Amor, is also expected to strongly emphasise the issue of democratic backsliding.
Reactions from individual EU member states have been far from uniform. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron, along with the CHP's political allies from the Socialist family and fellow European mayors, condemned the arrest as politically motivated and anti-democratic. Others, however, such as Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, have remained conspicuously silent or turned a blind eye, reflecting the delicate balance between democratic principles and strategic interests in their relations with Ankara.
Turkey’s invitation to Paris for discussions with the intergovernmental “coalition of the willing” to strengthen European defence illustrates the view shared by EU and non-EU countries alike that Turkey is an important partner in European defence. This underscores the EU’s ongoing struggle to balance democratic principles with geopolitical and security interests – an increasingly difficult task as Turkey’s democratic decline deepens.
The stakes for Europe or strategic ambiguity
While Turkey-EU relations have been in troubled waters for years, the new geopolitical context that has emerged since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, instability in the Middle East, and the return of Donald Trump to the White House, increases Turkey’s geopolitical weight in the region and beyond, including vis-à-vis European security.
In particular, the Trump administration has brought renewed uncertainty in transatlantic relations, particularly regarding Washington’s commitment to NATO and European security architecture more broadly. With Trump’s scepticism toward NATO’s collective defence, the EU now bears a heavier responsibility for regional stability, further elevating Turkey’s strategic significance. Ankara’s strong geopolitical position, military capabilities, growing defence industry, and ties to NATO and other global actors solidify its role as an indispensable player in a future European security architecture.
For the Turkish opposition’s demonstrations to succeed, they require both domestic momentum and carefully calibrated support from the EU. Without sustained public backing and a nuanced European solidarity rooted in shared values, the demonstrations risk losing traction, leaving the opposition isolated. The EU, therefore, has a historic opportunity to support Turkey’s democratic movement. Its response will be a litmus test of its commitment to human rights, democracy and the rule of law, and it will reveal whether the EU truly upholds these values in its relations with Ankara or merely pays lip service to them, allowing geopolitical and strategic interests to take precedence.
Rather than adopting a transactional approach – whether through interest-based cooperation to curb irregular migration, enhance defence, or contribute to European security – the EU should consider reinvigorating Turkey’s merit-based accession perspective. This long-term strategy would yield more sustainable benefits for both parties, fostering a deeper commitment to shared values. One way to encourage progress is to advance toward the long-sought modernisation of the Customs Union by linking this to tangible democratic reforms. Another approach could involve offering visa facilitation for specific groups, such as young professionals, entrepreneurs or academics, contingent upon meaningful democratic advancements. This targeted strategy would incentivise Turkey to take concrete steps in areas like judicial independence, freedom of expression, and the right to assembly while sustaining the broader EU-Turkey relationship by providing tangible benefits to Turkey’s population. Furthermore, the EU should continue engaging in high-level dialogues with Turkey, including through the Association Council. However, these discussions must always include a focus on democratic reforms and enhancing the rule of law. While maintaining technical-level cooperation on military and defence matters, the EU must continue to urge Turkey to align with EU values.
By striking a balance of flexibility and firmness, the EU can keep its support for democratic movements, strengthen people-to-people ties, and reinforce Turkey’s integration with European values. By conditioning further economic cooperation on democratic reforms, the EU can encourage Ankara to align more closely with EU principles while preserving vital strategic ties. This approach is particularly crucial as Turkey’s opposition pushes for democratic changes amid increasing political pressure. It will enable the EU to sustain positive momentum in its relationship with Turkey while reaffirming its commitment to human rights, democracy and the rule of law – ultimately fostering a more stable and mutually beneficial partnership as democratic dynamics in Turkey continue to unfold.
The views stated in this article belong to the authors and need not agree, partly or entirely, with the institutional views of IstanPol Institute.
Riccardo Gasco is a Ph.D. candidate at Bologna University and the Foreign Policy Program Coordinator at IstanPol Institute in Istanbul, as well as a Visiting Research Fellow at the Istanbul Policy Center.
Ayşe Yürekli is a senior expert and policy advisor in EU affairs, civil society representative and consultant based in Brussels. She is currently a Non-Resident Fellow of IstanPol Institute and an enlargement candidate member of the EESC.
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